Modeling the Incubation Period of Anthrax

Models of the incubation period of anthrax are important to public health planners because they can be used to predict the delay before outbreaks are detected, the size of an outbreak and the duration of time that persons should remain on antibiotics to prevent disease. The difficulty is that there is little direct data about the incubation period in humans. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply models for the incubation period of anthrax. Mechanistic models that account for the biology of spore clearance and germination are developed based on a competing risks formulation. The models predict that the incubation period distribution depends critically on the rate that spores are cleared from the lung and to a lesser extent on the dose of inhaled spores. The models are used in a statistical analysis of data from an anthrax outbreak that occurred in Sverdlovsk, Russia. The analysis suggests that spores are cleared from the lung at a rate between 8% per day, and 14% per day, which is in good agreement with experimental studies of animals. The analysis suggests that at low doses, the overall median incubation period time is about 10 days, which includes a median lag of about 2 days between spore germination and onset of symptoms. Male gender and younger ages were associated with longer incubation periods as was lower dose of inhaled spores

FORECASTING THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF ALZHEIMER\u27S DISEASE

Background: The goal was to forecast the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease and evaluate the potential impact of interventions that delay disease onset or progression. Methods: A stochastic multi-state model was used in conjunction with U.N. worldwide population forecasts and data from epidemiological studies on risks of Alzheimer’s disease. Findings: In 2006 the worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease was 26.6 million. By 2050, prevalence will quadruple by which time 1 in 85 persons worldwide will be living with the disease. We estimate about 43% of prevalent cases need a high level of care equivalent to that of a nursing home. If interventions could delay both disease onset and progression by a modest 1 year, there would be nearly 9.2 million fewer cases of disease in 2050 with nearly all the decline attributable to decreases in persons needing high level of care. Interpretation: We face a looming global epidemic of Alzheimer’s disease as the world’s population ages. Modest advances in therapeutic and preventive strategies that lead to even small delays in Alzheimer’s onset and progression can significantly reduce the global burden of the disease

Immediate Antiretroviral Therapy Decreases Mortality Among Patients With High CD4 Counts in China: A Nationwide, Retrospective Cohort Study.

BackgroundClinical trials have demonstrated that immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. We tested the hypothesis that initiating ART ≤30 days after human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis would be associated with reduced mortality among people living with HIV (PLWH) with CD4 counts >500 cells/μL.MethodsPLWH enrolled in the Chinese National HIV Information System between January 2012 and June 2014 with CD4 counts >500 cells/μL were followed for 12 months. Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) for PLWH who initiated ART after HIV diagnosis. ART initiation was treated as a time-dependent variable.ResultsWe enrolled 34581 PLWH with CD4 >500 cells/μL; 1838 (5.3%) initiated ART ≤30 days after diagnosis (immediate ART group), and 19 deaths were observed with a mortality rate of 1.04 per 100 person-years (PY). Fifty-eight deaths were documented among the 5640 PLWH in the delayed ART group with a mortality rate of 2.25 per 100 PY. There were 713 deaths among the 27103 PLWH in the no ART group with a mortality rate of 2.39 per 100 PY. After controlling for potential confounding factors, ART initiation at ≤30 days (adjusted HR, 0.37 [95% confidence interval, .23-.58]) was a statistically significant protective factor.ConclusionsWe found that immediate ART is associated with a 63% reduction in overall mortality among PLWH with CD4 counts >500 cells/μL in China, supporting the recommendation to initiate ART immediately following HIV diagnosis

Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release

Rapidly identifying the features of a covert release of an agent such as anthrax could help to inform the planning of public health mitigation strategies. Previous studies have sought to estimate the time and size of a bioterror attack based on the symptomatic onset dates of early cases. We extend the scope of these methods by proposing a method for characterizing the time, strength, and also the location of an aerosolized pathogen release. A back-calculation method is developed allowing the characterization of the release based on the data on the first few observed cases of the subsequent outbreak, meteorological data, population densities, and data on population travel patterns. We evaluate this method on small simulated anthrax outbreaks (about 25–35 cases) and show that it could date and localize a release after a few cases have been observed, although misspecifications of the spore dispersion model, or the within-host dynamics model, on which the method relies can bias the estimates. Our method could also provide an estimate of the outbreak's geographical extent and, as a consequence, could help to identify populations at risk and, therefore, requiring prophylactic treatment. Our analysis demonstrates that while estimates based on the first ten or 15 observed cases were more accurate and less sensitive to model misspecifications than those based on five cases, overall mortality is minimized by targeting prophylactic treatment early on the basis of estimates made using data on the first five cases. The method we propose could provide early estimates of the time, strength, and location of an aerosolized anthrax release and the geographical extent of the subsequent outbreak. In addition, estimates of release features could be used to parameterize more detailed models allowing the simulation of control strategies and intervention logistics

Alterations to the Gastrointestinal Microbiome Associated with Methamphetamine Use among Young Men who have Sex with Men.

Methamphetamine (MA) use is a major public health problem in the United States, especially among people living with HIV (PLWH). Many MA-induced neurotoxic effects are mediated by inflammation and gut microbiota may play a role in this process, yet the effects of MA on the microbiome have not been adequately explored. Therefore, we performed 16S rRNA gene sequencing on rectal swab samples from 381 men who have sex with men, 48% of whom were PLWH and 41% of whom used MA. We compared microbiome composition between MA users and non-users while testing for potential interactions with HIV and controlling for numerous confounders using inverse probability of treatment weighting. We found that MA use explained significant variation in overall composition (R2 = 0.005, p = 0.008) and was associated with elevated Finegoldia, Parvimonas, Peptoniphilus, and Porphyromonas and reduced Butyricicoccus and Faecalibacterium, among others. Genera including Actinomyces and Streptobacillus interacted with HIV status, such that they were increased in HIV+ MA users. Finegoldia and Peptoniphilus increased with increasing frequency of MA use, among others. In summary, MA use was associated with a microbial imbalance favoring pro-inflammatory bacteria, including some with neuroactive potential and others that have previously been associated with poor HIV outcomes

Substantial improvements not seen in health behaviors following corner store conversions in two Latino food swamps.

BackgroundThe effectiveness of food retail interventions is largely undetermined, yet substantial investments have been made to improve access to healthy foods in food deserts and swamps via grocery and corner store interventions. This study evaluated the effects of corner store conversions in East Los Angeles and Boyle Heights, California on perceived accessibility of healthy foods, perceptions of corner stores, store patronage, food purchasing, and eating behaviors.MethodsHousehold data (n = 1686) were collected at baseline and 12- to 24-months post-intervention among residents surrounding eight stores, three of which implemented a multi-faceted intervention and five of which were comparisons. Bivariate analyses and logistic and linear regressions were employed to assess differences in time, treatment, and the interaction between time and treatment to determine the effectiveness of this intervention.ResultsImprovements were found in perceived healthy food accessibility and perceptions of corner stores. No changes were found, however, in store patronage, purchasing, or consumption of fruits and vegetables.ConclusionsResults suggest limited effectiveness of food retail interventions on improving health behaviors. Future research should focus on other strategies to reduce community-level obesity

Combination HIV prevention among MSM in South Africa: results from agent-based modeling

HIV prevention trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of a number of behavioral and biomedical interventions. HIV prevention packages are combinations of interventions and offer potential to significantly increase the effectiveness of any single intervention. Estimates of the effectiveness of prevention packages are important for guiding the development of prevention strategies and for characterizing effect sizes before embarking on large scale trials. Unfortunately, most research to date has focused on testing single interventions rather than HIV prevention packages. Here we report the results from agent-based modeling of the effectiveness of HIV prevention packages for men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa. We consider packages consisting of four components: antiretroviral therapy for HIV infected persons with CD4 count <350; PrEP for high risk uninfected persons; behavioral interventions to reduce rates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI); and campaigns to increase HIV testing. We considered 163 HIV prevention packages corresponding to different intensity levels of the four components. We performed 2252 simulation runs of our agent-based model to evaluate those packages. We found that a four component package consisting of a 15% reduction in the rate of UAI, 50% PrEP coverage of high risk uninfected persons, 50% reduction in persons who never test for HIV, and 50% ART coverage over and above persons already receiving ART at baseline, could prevent 33.9% of infections over 5 years (95% confidence interval, 31.5, 36.3). The package components with the largest incremental prevention effects were UAI reduction and PrEP coverage. The impact of increased HIV testing was magnified in the presence of PrEP. We find that HIV prevention packages that include both behavioral and biomedical components can in combination prevent significant numbers of infections with levels of coverage, acceptance and adherence that are potentially achievable among MSM in South Africa